How likely is successful mass exploitation of PHP2SHELL?

Never in a high alert scenario should be try and be too solid with our predictions, because this game is difficult! but given PHP2SHELL day is such a mad day, I’m going to break my typical model, however:

Personal view: this is a HIGH ALERT scenario but not an ACTIVE EXPLOITATION scenario (at the time of writing), so this is SERIOUS and requires paying attention to!

but the question, how likely is this to lead to mass exploitation? is there REAL tough and serious question we have to ask when considering the wider landscape of national security etc. so I’m going to at least explore it a bit!

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